The Dolphins were defiled in Buffalo, but they still have the best odds of any team “in the hunt” to capture the AFC’s sixth and final playoff spot.
Below are updated standings, scenarios, Week 17 lines, and playoff odds (via Football Outsiders).
1. Miami (8-7)
Playoff Odds: 59%
Playoff Bound With: Win + BAL loss OR Win + SD win
Week 17: vs New York (7-8)
Line: Miami by 6.5
The Jets are out, but would love nothing more than to spoil their southern foe’s season in what could be Rex Ryan’s final game as coach.
2. Baltimore (8-7)
Playoff Odds: 19%
Playoff Bound With: BAL win + SD loss OR BAL win + MIA loss OR PIT loss + SD loss + MIA loss
Week 17: at Cincinnati
Line: Cincinatti by 3.5
Like the Dolphins, the Ravens got toasted yesterday, falling to the Patriots 41-7 — in Baltimore. Since the Bengals still have a shot at the No. 2 seed and a bye, this one is going to be a war in Cincinnati.
3. San Diego (8-7)
Playoff Odds: 13%
Playoff Bound With: Win + BAL loss + MIA loss
Week 17: vs. Kansas City
Line: San Diego by 7.5
Kansas City is locked in at the No. 5 seed, meaning they may choose to rest some key players this week. If so, the Chargers will have the easiest Week 17 matchup of the bunch by far. Unfortunately, their playoff hopes hinge on both Baltimore and Miami losing.
4. Pittsburgh (7-8)
Playoff Odds: 9%
Playoff Bound With: An act of God (Win + BAL loss + MIA loss + SD loss)
Week 17: vs. Cleveland
Line: Pittsburgh by 6
Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes are about as likely as Jonathan Martin suiting up this weekend.